Canada Wants to Increase Immigration Again: What Carney and the 2026 Plan Signal
By Angélica González Blanco
Is Canada opening its doors again? After three years of cuts, the federal government is signalling a change. Canada wants to increase immigration again, but with one clear condition: growth has to be orderly. In this article, I explain what Prime Minister Mark Carney said, what the official numbers show and what new support the Immigration Minister announced to attract talent to three regions of the country.
Mark Carney’s Position: Immigration Is “Back Under Control”
In an interview with The New York Times, Mark Carney said Canada’s immigration system is “back under control.” In his view, the question is no longer whether the country should grow. Instead, it is when to begin a “controlled increase” in population.
He gave no dates or numbers. He only said the increase will come once the government is confident it has control. In July, he had already said Canada had “regained control” after the rapid growth of previous years.
This message matters for one reason. In just over a month, the government is required by law to publish the Immigration Levels Plan for the next three years. As a result, his words offer a hint of what may come next.
Canada’s Current Immigration Plan: The Targets
To understand where the country is going, we first need to look at where it is coming from. The last three plans focused on reducing arrivals after the post-pandemic population boom. Canada had once planned to reach 500,000 permanent residents per year, but that changed with the 2024/25 plan.
These are the current targets:
- Permanent residents: 380,000 per year in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
- Temporary residents in 2026: 385,000 arrivals in total.
- 230,000 temporary workers.
- 155,000 international students.
- Long-term goal: bring temporary residents below 5% of the population. In October 2024, they were above 7%.
How Many Migrants Are in Canada Today? The Numbers
Arrivals from January to July 2026
| Category | Arrived (Jan–Jul) | 2026 Target | Progress | Change vs. 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International students | 28,200 | 155,000 | 18% | −80% |
| Temporary workers | 113,360 | 230,000 | 49% | −59% |
| Total | 141,560 | 385,000 | 37% | −66% |
For context, July is month 7 of 12, or 58% of the year. However, arrivals have reached only 37% of the target. Compared with the same period in 2024, 275,010 fewer people arrived.
Active study permits also fell sharply. As of July 31, 2026, there were 590,205, down from more than one million in mid-2024.
Temporary Residents Already Living in Canada
According to Statistics Canada, as of July 1, 2026:
- There were 2,779,774 non-permanent residents, or 6.7% of the population. The target is 5%.
- That number fell by 154,614 in one year, the largest annual drop since records began (1971/72).
- The steepest decline was among study permit holders: −140,827.
- Canada’s total population reached 41,798,407, with annual growth of just 0.5%, the lowest in decades.
From Temporary to Permanent
This is a key point for people already in Canada. From January to July, 57% of new permanent residents were already living in the country as temporary residents (127,135 people). In addition, the plan aims to speed up permanent residence for up to 33,000 temporary workers in 2026 and 2027.
Why Canada Wants to Increase Immigration, and Where It Is Heading
The data tells two stories at once:
- Arrivals are under control. New arrivals are well below target.
- The goal has not been reached yet. Temporary residents make up 6.7% of the population, compared with the 5% target.
Therefore, the government is looking for balance. It wants to keep lowering the total number of temporary residents while preparing for gradual growth. In practice, this favours people already in Canada who can move to permanent residence, as well as profiles the country needs.
Not everyone agrees. The C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council recommends continuing to reduce arrivals over the next three years. The group includes academics, a former deputy minister and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney.
Minister Lena Metlege Diab: 3 Projects to Attract French-Speaking Newcomers
While the new plan is being prepared, the government is already focusing on one specific profile: French speakers and bilingual candidates.
On September 29, in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab announced, together with provincial minister Lin Paddock, an investment of about $1.2 million from the Francophone Immigration Support Program. The funding supports two new projects and launches a campaign in a third region.
The goal is to attract talent to communities where French is a minority language and, at the same time, address labour shortages.
1. Newfoundland and Labrador: Recruiting Abroad
- A provincial government project worth $349,684 over two years.
- Recruits French-speaking and bilingual workers from outside Canada.
- Sectors: education, health care and early childhood education.
- Aims to build a steady talent pipeline and expand French-language services.
2. Saskatchewan: “Destination Saskatchewan”
- A project of the Conseil économique et coopératif de la Saskatchewan.
- Connects local employers with international French-speaking talent.
- Includes an interactive map, in-person and virtual events, support with credential recognition and certification exams, and cultural adaptation workshops.
- Sectors: agriculture, health care, mining, energy, technology and hospitality.
3. Northern Ontario: “Osez le Nord”
- A campaign meaning “Dare the North,” created by the Carrefour francophone de Sudbury.
- Brings all of northern Ontario’s Francophone immigration partners together under one brand.
- Promotes the region to French-speaking families, workers and students.
- Funded in 2025, it is now being rolled out.
Why French Matters
In 2025, 8.9% of new permanent residents outside Quebec were French speakers. IRCC has met or exceeded that target four years in a row. In total, 23 projects have been funded for about $19.8 million over four years. In short, speaking French is now one of the strongest advantages for immigrating to Canada.
Conclusion: Canada Wants to Increase Immigration, With a Strategy
Canada has not closed its doors. On the contrary, it wants to increase immigration in an orderly way. Carney’s message, the arrival numbers and the new Francophone projects all point in the same direction: the country wants to grow again, but gradually and with specific profiles.
If you are thinking about immigrating, now is a good time to prepare your profile. Improve your French, review your credentials and learn about each province’s programs. And if you are already in Canada on temporary status, keep a close eye on pathways to permanent residence.
Want to know which option fits your profile? Contact us and we will help you review your case.
